Kalshi bets are binary YES/NO event contracts traded on America's first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange. Bet on politics, economics, sports, and more — in USD, with no bookmaker margin, legal in all 50 US states.
A Kalshi bet is a binary event contract — a YES or NO position on whether a specific, clearly defined event will occur by a specified date. Unlike traditional sports bets placed against a bookmaker, Kalshi bets are traded on a regulated financial exchange where you buy and sell positions against other market participants. The price of each contract, ranging from $0.01 to $0.99, directly represents the market's consensus probability of the outcome occurring.
When a Kalshi market resolves, every correct contract pays exactly $1.00. Every incorrect contract pays $0.00. If you buy a YES contract at $0.42 and the event occurs, you earn $0.58 profit per contract — a 138% return on your stake. If the event doesn't occur, your $0.42 stake is your total loss. There are no partial payouts, no consolation prizes, and no spread — just a clean, transparent binary outcome.
What makes Kalshi bets fundamentally different from traditional gambling is their regulatory status. Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market — the same federal regulatory framework that governs the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange. This makes Kalshi bets a regulated financial instrument, not a gambling product, with all the consumer protections, transparency requirements, and accountability that federal regulation entails.
From account creation to your first resolved Kalshi bet — the complete process.
Visit kalshi.com or download the Kalshi app (iOS / Android). Click "Sign Up," enter your email and create a password. Because Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated financial exchange, identity verification is required — submit a government-issued photo ID (driver's licence or passport) and confirm your residential address. Verification is automated and typically completes within 2–5 minutes. You must be a US resident aged 18 or older. Non-US residents should check local availability.
Kalshi accepts three deposit methods: ACH bank transfer (free, arrives in 1–3 business days), wire transfer (same-day, ideal for large amounts), and debit card (instant availability, small processing fee). The minimum deposit is $1. Your deposited funds are held with FDIC-insured banking partners — not pooled in a crypto smart contract — making Kalshi one of the safest places to hold prediction market capital. There is no cryptocurrency involved at any stage.
Browse Kalshi's market categories — Economics, Politics, Sports, Science, Culture, and Finance. Each market listing shows the current YES and NO prices, total trading volume, open interest, market close date, and the exact resolution criteria. The resolution criteria are the most important element to read carefully — they specify precisely which official source will determine the outcome and under what conditions YES pays $1.00. Understanding resolution criteria is the single most important skill for successful Kalshi betting.
Click YES or NO on your chosen market. Enter the dollar amount you want to risk. Choose between a market order (immediate execution at the best current price — ideal for liquid markets) or a limit order (execute only when the price reaches your target — ideal for getting better entry on less liquid markets). Review the contract count, your average fill price, and maximum payout, then click Confirm. Your bet is placed instantly. No gas fees. No blockchain delays.
Your portfolio dashboard shows all open positions with real-time P&L, contract count, current price, and unrealised gain/loss. You can sell any position before resolution by clicking Sell — the proceeds are immediately credited to your Kalshi balance. At market resolution, winning positions automatically pay $1.00 per contract. Withdraw your USD balance to your linked bank account at any time, with no withdrawal fees and typical processing of 1–3 business days.
| Buy Price | Stake | Contracts | Payout if Correct | Profit | Return % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.20 | $100 | 500 | $500 | +$400 | +400% |
| $0.35 | $100 | 286 | $286 | +$186 | +186% |
| $0.50 | $100 | 200 | $200 | +$100 | +100% |
| $0.65 | $100 | 154 | $154 | +$54 | +54% |
| $0.80 | $100 | 125 | $125 | +$25 | +25% |
All figures based on $100 stake. Actual contract counts may vary with rounding. Losing bets return $0.
Kalshi covers every major macro and micro event category with regulated, USD-settled contracts.
Fed rate decisions, CPI data, GDP growth, unemployment reports, Treasury yields, housing market data, and corporate earnings thresholds.
US executive and legislative outcomes, Presidential approval ratings, Supreme Court decisions, international elections, and geopolitical events.
NFL Super Bowl, NBA Finals, MLB World Series, NHL Stanley Cup, FIFA World Cup 2026, UFC title fights, golf majors, tennis Grand Slams.
S&P 500 price targets, Bitcoin milestones, Ethereum ETF decisions, interest rate forwards, commodity price thresholds, IPO outcomes.
AI model capability milestones, FDA drug approvals, SpaceX launch outcomes, climate data reports, major tech product launch dates.
Diplomatic negotiations, international sanctions, military conflict developments, treaty ratifications, and UN Security Council resolutions.
On Kalshi, the contract price is the probability. A YES contract trading at $0.42 means the market collectively assigns a 42% chance that the event will occur. Unlike bookmaker odds, there is no margin baked into Kalshi prices. The bid-ask spread on liquid Kalshi markets is typically just 1–3 cents — far tighter than the implicit margin in traditional sports betting lines.
| Format | Example | $100 Stake Returns |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (42¢) | $0.42 YES | $238 |
| American | +138 | $238 |
| Decimal | 2.38 | $238 |
| Fractional | 69/50 | $238 |
Kalshi YES + NO prices always sum to approximately $1.00. The small gap between YES + NO = $1.00 is the bid-ask spread — the only implicit cost of trading.
Yes. Kalshi operates as a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM) — the same federal regulatory classification as the CME Group and CBOE. This federal oversight means Kalshi bets are legal financial instruments for all US residents in all 50 states, independent of state-level gambling regulations. Kalshi is not a gambling site — it is a federally regulated prediction exchange. Non-US residents should check the availability of Kalshi in their specific country.
Kalshi has no officially mandated minimum bet amount. In practice, the smallest functional bet is $1, which buys a single contract at $1.00 or a fractional contract at lower price points. Most active Kalshi bettors start with $25–$100 to allow meaningful diversification across several markets. There is no maximum bet limit on the platform, though large orders in thin markets will face wider bid-ask spreads.
Consistent profitability on Kalshi is possible but requires genuine informational or analytical edge. Because Kalshi is a peer-to-peer market with no house edge, the average participant's expected return before fees is approximately zero. Profitable Kalshi bettors succeed by identifying markets where the consensus probability is meaningfully mispriced relative to their private assessment — typically through superior domain knowledge in economics, politics, finance, or sports analytics. Consistent winners are never restricted on Kalshi, unlike traditional sportsbooks.
Each Kalshi market specifies its resolution criteria in the market description — typically referencing a named official source (e.g., Bureau of Labor Statistics for CPI data, Associated Press for election calls, NFL.com for championship results). Kalshi's resolution committee reviews the specified source after the event and settles the market accordingly. As a CFTC-regulated entity, Kalshi's resolution process is subject to federal audit and dispute escalation procedures, providing a level of accountability unavailable on unregulated prediction platforms.
Kalshi charges a fee on winning trades — currently a small percentage of profits on resolved winning positions. There is no fee on losing trades, no subscription fee, and no fee for deposits or withdrawals. The exact fee structure is published on Kalshi's official fee schedule page and has evolved since platform launch. Additionally, the bid-ask spread on each market represents a small implicit cost for market-order takers — typically 1–3 cents per contract on liquid markets.
No crypto. No bookmaker margin. No account restrictions for winning. Just transparent, regulated prediction market bets — from $1.
Open Your Kalshi Account →18+ · CFTC-regulated financial exchange · Trading involves risk of loss · US residents only
